Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 23.218658 25.334810 27.639086 30.349237 33.468531 36.969408 41.228692
2025-08-10 19.659197 22.468637 25.750552 29.923248 35.170334 41.667850 50.519077
2025-08-17 17.416315 20.613519 24.556214 29.893399 37.125986 46.904659 61.745812
2025-08-24 15.674030 19.053118 23.398955 29.585842 38.511234 51.546745 73.434953
2025-08-31 14.350336 17.824273 22.448560 29.317299 39.781831 56.177067 86.527532
2025-09-07 13.289332 16.804477 21.620804 29.040664 40.904322 60.733345 101.101055
2025-09-14 12.451363 15.992650 20.969950 28.893746 42.141612 65.700004 118.510275
2025-09-21 11.682897 15.201379 20.253193 28.523926 42.901599 69.941153 136.389395
2025-09-28 11.397331 15.069464 20.484062 29.670014 46.472076 80.560535 176.231157
2025-10-05 10.830193 14.473832 19.943621 29.452623 47.479015 86.132654 206.480889
2025-10-12 10.351441 13.973313 19.502983 29.342876 48.658016 92.444666 244.776421
2025-10-19 10.017558 13.667376 19.341271 29.696608 50.823908 101.872654 305.460007
2025-10-26 9.597665 13.209751 18.909608 29.535738 51.944898 109.240039 369.648243
2025-11-02 9.200618 12.764699 18.466339 29.307119 52.893948 116.612505 448.883347
2025-11-09 8.885730 12.430932 18.184472 29.355111 54.494640 126.718580 572.097465
2025-11-16 8.544883 12.035218 17.766555 29.087825 55.299658 134.734766 709.443857
2025-11-23 8.234495 11.671890 17.379058 28.839352 56.111244 143.276124 894.635094
2025-11-30 7.945510 11.328482 17.003190 28.574931 56.839608 152.008689 1144.241968
2025-12-07 7.695761 11.037415 16.701298 28.433825 57.876548 162.687924 1536.381802
2025-12-14 7.432388 10.710850 16.314748 28.073579 58.253514 170.936503 2015.755293
2025-12-21 7.386730 10.748835 16.595380 29.193380 63.091466 203.606714 4447.437479
2025-12-28 7.169849 10.483056 16.293669 28.981277 63.952085 217.221895 7371.620512
2026-01-04 6.979327 10.254358 16.048287 28.874175 65.130396 233.932816 14951.680582